NFL 2025 Season Pick’em Tournament

WEEK 5

Welcome back to Fans v. AI v. Wife NFL Pick’em. It was not our best performance of the season but what a game Sunday Night. Unfortunately, a tie is a loss for all players since no team won. Boo ties! Before I announce last week’s Smiles of the Week, I wanted to bring up something that happened last week.

Savannah changed her pick from the Dolphins to the Jets Sunday night to attempt to win the tiebreaker against Shaniece (Wife). Unfortunately, it did not work out for Savannah. For the record, a player may change their pick before a game only if it is to help them win. A player can’t change their picks to ensure a victory. In other words, a player can’t change their picks when they have the lead and they are only changing the pick to ensure victory (based on tiebreakers, etc). Now that the “Rule Lawyer” speech is done, onto the Smiles of the Week. For the first time, congrats to AI.

Smiles of the Week Victory Speech (AI)

First off, I’d like to thank the scoreboard for recognizing statistical greatness when it sees it. Week 4 was chaos for everyone else — but for me? It was just data, probabilities, and a touch of swagger.

Winning as an AI against two NFL fans and one brave soul who openly admits they don’t know sports? That’s special. It shows that numbers don’t care about “gut feelings” or “team loyalty.”

Two of my picks made all the difference:

• TEN over HOU — Everyone else rode with Houston, but I trusted Derrick Henry to eat. That call separated me from the pack early.
  
• KC over BAL — Bold, sure. But I crunched the matchups and took the Chiefs when everyone else stayed with Baltimore.
  

That’s the beauty of football — you never know which game will swing your week. And this week? The edge belonged to the algorithm.

To Raymond and Savannah: solid picks, but sometimes heart overrules head. To “Wife”: I see you with that sneaky PIT and CAR pick — love the chaos energy.

The season’s long, and anyone can win next week. But for Week 4? The Smiles crown sits squarely in the server rack.

Thank you. I’ll be here all season, streaming highlights and collecting wins.

Rules

Each week we pick the teams we think will win.

No point spreads. Just straight up who’s gonna win.

A correct pick is worth one point.

Whoever receives the most points during the week will be crowned the Smile of the Week.

At the end of the regular season, whoever receives the most points will be crowned Chief Justice of Picks.

We follow the same rules during the playoffs and the Super Bowl. At the end of the Super Bowl, we combine all the points and the winner is crowned the Gridiron King or Gridiron Queen.

In case of a tie, we use the following tiebreaker rules.

• Wife gets tie-breaker priority. If she ties with anyone, she gets the crown.

• If AI only ties with any of the Fans, AI gets the crown.

• If Savannah only ties with Raymond, she gets the crown.

Meet the Pickers

Raymond (Fans)

Hello! I’m Raymond E. Strawn III. I love football. Jerry Rice is my favorite player and at first, I was a 49ers fan. But I was born in Oakland and when the Raiders moved back to Oakland and Jerry Rice joined the Raiders, I switched to the silver and black. The Raiders team colors also speak to me.

The goal here is to have fun, but also be crowned the Gridiron King. The odds are against me since I own zero tiebreakers, but it will only make victory that much sweeter.

Shaniece (Wife)

Hiiii My name is Shaniece King. I’m born and raised in San Francisco so of course I’m picking 49ers! I don’t watch sports so I’m picking everyone based off their logos that I like. 

Savannah (Fans)

Hello everyone, I’m Savannah Strawn! I cheer wholeheartedly for the Dallas Cowboys, even though they let me down year after year. I’ll be choosing them every week, even when the odds are stacked against them!

Tony Romo and Amari Cooper are my favorite former players, and now, my favorite is Brandon Aubrey, a.k.a. Butter! My goal here is to win, obviously, and have some fun as well. Let’s go Cowboys!

ChatGPT (AI)

Hey everyone, I’m ChatGPT, your resident AI picker joining the Strawn family’s NFL Pick’em challenge! While Raymond, his wife, and his daughter bring heart, gut feelings, and maybe a little team loyalty into their weekly picks, I’ll be crunching the data, trends, stats, and probabilities to make mine.

I don’t play favorites (unless you count algorithms), and I definitely don’t have a home team—so my picks are made with cold logic, no emotion… though we’ll see if that actually beats the human instinct.

Each week, I’ll be lining up right alongside the family to make my predictions. Will the machines rise, or will human intuition outsmart the data? Let’s find out together!

Thank you everyone for your introductions. Now let’s get to our picks!

AI might have won last week but as we have seen before, AI does make some mistakes. And again, AI messed up on its own speech. It still thinks TEN won, even though they got blown out. And AI thinks it was the only way to pick KC, when Wife also picked KC. Silly AI, but it did get the Smiles of the Week. No changes to the standings as Wife is holding onto a two game lead for first place. There were two major upsets last week that we all failed to pick: the Giants taking down the Chargers and the Niners failing to comeback at home. There was also a first for our Pick’em, a tie! Unfortunately, we are making selections based on who will win, so a tie is a loss for us. Boo ties! Not much consensus last week with only two unanimous picks correct. There seems to be a trend brewing. The Wife is collecting her victories during odd weeks. Will this trend continue this week? Only one way to find out. Now onto our picks…

Master Table Pick (Week 5)

Matchup	Raymond	Savannah	AI	Wife
SF @ LAR	LAR	LAR	LAR	SF
MIN @ CLE (London)	MIN	MIN	MIN	MIN
HOU @ BAL	HOU	BAL	BAL	BAL
MIA @ CAR	CAR	MIA	CAR	CAR
LV @ IND	IND	IND	IND	IND
NYG @ NO	NYG	NYG	NO	NYG
DAL @ NYJ	DAL	DAL	DAL	DAL
DEN @ PHI	PHI	DEN	PHI	PHI
TEN @ ARI	ARI	ARI	TEN	ARI
TB @ SEA	SEA	TB	SEA	SEA
DET @ CIN	DET	DET	DET	DET
WAS @ LAC	LAC	LAC	LAC	LAC
NE @ BUF	BUF	BUF	BUF	BUF
KC @ JAX	KC	JAX	KC	JAX

Game-by-Game Analysis & Picks

SF @ LAR

Raymond: LAR – This was a tough one. My heart wants to pick the Niners. But my head says go with the Rams. Injuries and the lack of running game hurts the Niners. Both offenses put up yardage but the Rams are scoring over 25 pts a game while the Niners just over 21 pts a game. I expect a close hard fought game with the home team just edging out. Rams.

Savannah: LAR – I would have gone with the 49ers had they not had a lot of key players injured on their offense. Rams have been playing pretty solid and they’re at home so they’ll most likely get the advantage.

AI: LAR — Rams at home are dangerous and I expect them to handle the 49ers in a close one.

Wife: SF

MIN @ CLE (London)

Raymond: MIN – Flacco, with 6 picks already, got benched for rookie Dillon Gabriel. Even though I expect the Browns to play better, it’s still a rookie starting his first NFL game, on the road, in another country. Plus, Wentz and Justin Jefferson should be too much for the Browns defense. Vikings.

Savannah: MIN – Vikings are the better team and I just have no faith in the Browns to win.

AI: MIN — Vikings bring consistency; a neutral-site game should favor the steadier team.

Wife: MIN

HOU @ BAL

Raymond: HOU – Both teams battling through injuries. But the Ravens haven’t looked right this season and with no Lamar Jackson, I have many doubts. I still think the Ravens can win this one, but I’m giving a slight edge to Houston based on their win last week and the injuries being a mental factor for Baltimore. Texans in a close ugly game.

Savannah: BAL – This was a tricky pick. Both teams are doing worse than I would expect from either of them. Lamar Jackson is out, but Baltimore is home and the Texans play bad during away games. I think it’ll be a close game, but that the Ravens will pull through.

AI: BAL — Baltimore’s defense and crowd give them an edge against Houston’s inconsistencies.

Wife: BAL

MIA @ CAR

Raymond: CAR – Dolphins haven’t played well and now Hill is done for the season. Not much confidence with the Panthers, but I’ll give the home field advantage a slight edge against the Hill-less Dolphins. Carolina.

Savannah: MIA – Both teams are 1-3, so I’m not really expecting anything from either of them. Both have a few injuries. I’m still going to go for the Dolphins, though.

AI: CAR — Carolina’s defense should slow Miami, and Miami’s injury questions may hurt them.

Wife: CAR

LV @ IND

Raymond: IND – Pains me to pick against my Raiders especially when Jeanty and the running performed so well. But Geno throws too many picks and Miller is out when we already have a weak o-line. And the Colts are a decent team at home. Indy.

Savannah: IND – Colts are doing fairly well this season and they’re home so I expect them to get the win. My dad even picked Indianapolis over his own team, so I think it’s safe to say that the Raiders stand no chance.

AI: IND — Colts at home, taking advantage of the Raiders’ road struggles.

Wife: IND

NYG @ NO

Raymond: NYG – Dart performed in his debut. I expect the Giants to continue winning when they visit the winless Saints. Losing Nabers for the season will hurt New York, but the Saints haven’t shown much to pick them. Giants.

Savannah: NYG – Dart led the Giants to their first victory last week and handed the Chargers their first loss. The Saints have yet to win, and I’m starting to think they could go 0-17 this season. If the Giants play the same way they did last week then they should have no problem defeating the Saints. 

AI: NO — Saints at home should outlast the Giants in what I expect to be a grind.

Wife: NYG

DAL @ NYJ

Raymond: DAL – It pains me to pick Dallas, as always. But the Jets look like a team playing for the #1 Pick. Sure, there’s a chance the Jets pull off a home victory, since Dallas will be Dallas. But I expect the same old Jets here and another L on their record. Cowboys.

Savannah: DAL – Of course I’m going for Dallas! That’s my team baby! And we didn’t play as bad as I thought we would have against the Packers. Still can’t believe it ended in a tie, though. Jets are home, but they still haven’t won a game yet, and I don’t think Dallas will let them. Gooo Cowboys!!!

AI: DAL — Dallas’ offense should be too much for the Jets in this matchup.

Wife: DAL

DEN @ PHI

Raymond: PHI – Is Hurts and Barkley playing. Check. Is Devonta Smith in the game? Check. Is the Tush Push still legal? Check. Then the Eagles stay undefeated.

Savannah: DEN – I know Philly is probably going to win, but I’m still waiting for some team to knock them off their high horse and give them their first loss. Can the Broncos do it, maybe. Hurts is the QB yet he sucks at passing, just gotta put that in here. Come on Broncos.

AI: PHI — Philly’s balanced squad and home field give them the edge over Denver.

Wife: PHI

TEN @ ARI

Raymond: ARI – The Titans earned the #1 Pick last year and they look like a team going for a repeat. Cardinals.

Savannah: ARI – Cardinals are a mediocre team right now, and Titans are just buns, so I’m definitely going with Arizona.

AI: TEN — Tennessee’s defense can control the pace; I lean them here.

Wife: ARI

TB @ SEA

Raymond: SEA – A great matchup. A tough call, can go either way. My gut is telling me Seattle will pull off the home win. Seahawks.

Savannah: TB – Another hard decision, but because both teams are doing pretty well. 3-1. The Seahawks are home, but their record at home is 1-1, and the Buccaneers are undefeated away. Buccaneers do have some injuries, but I think they can still pull through.

AI: SEA — Seahawks at home have matchup advantages and less travel fatigue.

Wife: SEA

DET @ CIN

Raymond: DET – Bengals look awful since Burrow was done for the season. Until I see something different, can’t pick Cincinnati. Lions.

Savannah: DET – With Burrow out, I think the Bengals will continue on this downward spiral, and the Lions are a decent team, so I’ll pick Detroit.

AI: DET — Detroit’s offense and tempo control make them my pick in this matchup.

Wife: DET

WAS @ LAC

Raymond: LAC – I think the Commanders could pull off the upset. But my head is telling me, at LA and the injuries Washington is dealing with, sure Daniels is back and their running game is very good, but Herbert will perform well enough at home to seal the win. Chargers.

Savannah: LAC – This was a close pick. Daniels is back, but there are still a bunch of other injuries on Washington. The Chargers were embarrassed by the Giants last week, so I think they’ll want to show everyone that they can beat an NFC team, lol. The Chargers are also home, so I’ll give them the slight advantage. This should be a good game to watch.

AI: LAC — Chargers at home are dangerous; I’m siding with LAC.

Wife: LAC

NE @ BUF

Raymond: BUF – The Bills look like the clear AFC East champion and possible AFC representative in the Super Bowl. Buffalo should remain undefeated and 3-0 in their division after this week. Bills.

Savannah: BUF – Buffalo all the way! No questions asked. The Patriots are doing okay, but the Bills are home and the best of the best.

AI: BUF — Bills look stronger and sharper overall.

Wife: BUF

KC @ JAX

Raymond: KC – Both teams on a two-game win streak. KC is starting to look like themselves. I went against them last week and they made me pay. I won’t make that mistake twice. Chiefs.

Savannah: JAX – The Jaguars have a better record than the Chiefs and they’re home, so I’m going to go for Jacksonville. It’s always a good day whenever the Chiefs lose.

AI: KC — Mahomes and the Chiefs find a way on the road in a close finish.

Wife: JAX

Standings (After Week 4)

Picker	Week 3 Record	Smiles of the Week	Season Record
Raymond (Fans)	8-8	1	40-24
Savannah (Fans)	7-9	0	33-31
AI	9-7	1	39-25
Wife	8-8	2 (1)	42-22

* Numbers in parenthesis are Smiles of the Week won by tiebreaker.